2010-04-08 – businessinsider.com
“In this morning’s Breakfast With Dave note, David Rosenberg of Gluskin-Sheff hits on a theme we discussed the other day, about the impact of Obama’s “Extend & Pretend” mortgage policy. As originally argued by Paul Jackson at HousingWire, it’s the fact that millions of families are essentially living mortgage-free which explains the seeming disconnect between sagging housing and rebounding consumer spending.”
2010-04-08 – irvinehousingblog.com
“Lenders are trying to figure out how their massive Ponzi Scheme collapsed. They are relearning lending again because everything they thought they knew was wrong. When you get down to the heart of the matter, borrowers are carrying too much debt which is killing them financially and emotionally”
I attended a local Building Industry Association conference on Friday 26 March 2010. The west coast manager of real estate owned, Senior Vice President Ken Gaitan, stated that Bank of America, which currently forecloses on 7,500 homes a month nationally, will increase that number to 45,000 homes per month by December of 2010.
I apologize to everyone about the lack of updates. Work has been…. well…. work. It seems transactions take 3 – 4x as long and nearly 9 of 10 are either Short Sales or Bank Owned real estate. It seems that the banks are controlling the market, the interest rates and now, most of the real estate for sale. We have tax credits expiring, we have the FED’s backing out of buying Mortgage Backed Securities, we have hundreds of billions $$$ in loans left to adjust and we have an ENORMOUS pool of Commercial Rela Estate scheduled for default in the next 4 years. Things are about to get really interesting, so I’ll get back on my horse and keep you all up-to-date.
Happy Navigating, Jason Pickle
2009-12-03Calculated Risk Blog
“In the week ending Nov. 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 457,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 462,000 [revised from 466,000]. The 4-week moving average was 481,250, a decrease of 14,250 from the previous week’s revised average of 495,500.
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Nov. 21 was 5,465,000, an increase of 28,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 5,437,000. The 4-week moving average was 5,541,500, a decrease of 75,750 from the preceding week’s revised average of 5,617,250.”
“Overall, many participants viewed the risks to their inflation outlooks over the next few quarters as being roughly balanced. Some saw the risks as tilted to the downside in the near term, reflecting the quite elevated level of economic slack and the possibility that inflation expectations could begin to decline in response to the low level of actual inflation. But others felt that risks were tilted to the upside over a longer horizon, because of the possibility that inflation expectations could rise as a result of the public’s concerns about extraordinary monetary policy stimulus and large federal budget deficits. Moreover, these participants noted that banks might seek to reduce appreciably their excess reserves as the economy improves by purchasing securities or by easing credit standards and expanding their lending substantially. Such a development, if not offset by Federal Reserve actions, could give additional impetus to spending and, potentially, to actual and expected inflation. To keep inflation expectations anchored, all participants agreed that it was important for policy to be responsive to changes in the economic outlook and for the Federal Reserve to continue to clearly communicate its ability and intent to begin withdrawing monetary policy accommodation at the appropriate time and pace.”
Nov. 27 (Bloomberg) — The worldwide decline in equities spurred by Dubai’s efforts to reschedule its debt is a sign that government spending alone won’t be enough to protect financial markets, according to Arnab Das of Roubini Global Economics.
Shares slumped from Shanghai to Brazil and European shares fell the most in seven months yesterday after Dubai World, the government investment company burdened by $59 billion of liabilities, sought to delay repayment on much of its debt. Governments have spent, lent or guaranteed $11.6 trillion and central banks held interest rates near zero percent to end the first global recession since World War II.
“We’re bound to see a rise in risk aversion,” Das, who is based in London, said in an interview. “The Dubai situation signifies that although the major central banks around the world have stabilized the financial system, they can’t make all the excesses simply disappear. We still have to work out those balance sheet stresses. The recovery is proceeding, but significant challenges still lie ahead.”
1009-11-29 Mish’s Global Economic Blog
Global stock markets endured heavy selling on Thursday as investors were spooked by the spectre of a default by Dubai and after a febrile foreign exchange market saw the yen surge to a 14-year high against the dollar.
The turmoil caused a flight to less risky assets. Gold, which had challenged $1,200 in Asian trading, fell back from its highs and money flowed into havens such as German government bonds.
US markets are closed for the Thanksgiving holiday, but electronic trading of the benchmark S&P 500 equity futures contract showed a potential drop on Wall Street of 2.2 per cent.
As the European trading day progressed it became clear it was Dubai World’s difficulties that had hit a particular nerve, reminding investors of the lingering damage wrought by the financial crisis.
2009-11-28 Mish’s Global Economic Blog
“If there is no clear, easy way out for housing, then there is no clear, easy way out for Wells Fargo. Wells is sitting in a huge pile of Pay Option Arms in bubble states like California, where prices still have a long way to correct.”
“The following analysis by Bob Prechter is excerpted from the free Club EWI report, Discover the Top 100 Safest U.S. Banks. With 130 bank failures expected by the end of this year, we hope you’ll find this information more valuable than ever”
“Banks and savings institutions insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) posted aggregate net income of $2.8bn in Q309 despite net quarterly losses reported by more than 26% of all insured institutions, according to the FDIC’s quarterly report on insured institutions.”
Barry Ritholtz, CEO of Fusion IQ… notes the existing home sales number was juiced by sales of cheap condos and various government programs. Meanwhile, the Case-Shiller results were below expectations.
The 10 major cities in the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price index have risen 5% from their April low, but the index is still predicting a massive 45% fall from today’s values.
The index is still showing a current loss of 30% from the high in June 2006. Based upon a trend generated from the actual prices of 1987 to 1997, and generated forward in a linear projection, the index will fall a total of 62% before it reaches the trend norm.
2009-11-16 — bloomberg.com
“The options market shows investors are growing increasingly wary that U.S. debt sales may push yields higher even as inflation remains in check.”
2009-11-16 — heraldtribune.com
“The FBI recently added short sale flipping, dubbed “flopping” by some mortgage fraud experts, to its list of recognized real estate fraud.”
2009-11-16 — reuters.com
“Investors who reaped robust gains in U.S. mortgage-backed securities by piggy-backing on the Federal Reserve’s $1.25 trillion buying program are bracing for the end to the central bank’s support — and positioning themselves for a new round of profits as prices cheapen.”
Ambac Financial Group Inc.’s bond- insurance unit faces a 99 percent chance of default, credit derivatives show, as financial institutions brace for the second-largest bond insurer to file a capital update with regulators later today. ”
The market for commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) experienced a rally last week following the issuance of new guidelines regarding acceptable loan modifications within real estate mortgage investment conduits (REMICs).
The total reach of the new rules may not go so deep, however, as to help some underwater borrowers, according to one research firm.
“Next year, many option ARM payments will begin to readjust, slamming borrowers with dramatically higher monthly mortgage bills. Analysts say that could unleash the next big wave of foreclosures – and home-loan data show that the risky loans were heavily used in the Bay Area.”
2009-09-21 — blogspot.com
” At least another decade will pass before housing prices return to peak 2006 levels, according to an analyst at Moody’s Economy.com.”
While Regions may be an extreme example of inflated loan values, it’s not unique. Bank of America Corp. said its loans as of June 30 were worth $64.4 billion less than its balance sheet said. The difference represented 58 percent of the company’s Tier 1 common equity, a measure of capital used by regulators that excludes preferred stock and many intangible assets, such as goodwill accumulated through acquisitions of other companies.Wells Fargo & Co. said the fair value of its loans was $34.3 billion less than their book value as of June 30. The bank’s Tier 1 common equity, by comparison, was $47.1 billion.
2009-08-13 — blogspot.com
2009-08-12 — housingwire.com
” ING Group posted a EUR 71m ($100.9m) profit in Q209 after three consecutive quarters of losses, despite a decrease in the value and performance of its residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) portfolio. ”
2009-08-11 — wsj.com
2009-08-11 — blownmortgage.com
“Two reports out say if you’re thinking of buying, wait. The prices are going to continue to drop. The reason they offer are the same: Continuing increases in the number of homes worth less than their current mortgages.”
2009-08-11 — minyanville.com
“My vacation back to the US surprised and confounded many of my old friends: they know I moved back to park my wealth in dollars. Incredulously they asked how I could possibly not believe the US government, along with their crony partner the Federal Reserve, will not devalue the dollar to “settle” our debt with foreign lenders. A normal default (since we all know there is no way to possibly pay this debt back, nor is their enough capital in the world to buy our newly needed “financings”) isn’t palatable, they say, so the only direction for the dollar is down. I agree, but only in the long run. “
2009-08-10 — lewrockwell.com
2009-08-10 — nakedcapitalism.com
Today’s Financial Times highlights a possible target of regulatory action: bank overdraft fees. And those fees are not distributed the proverbial 80/20 pattern, with 20% of the accounts contributing 80% of the activity, but 90/10. And that 10%, not surprisingly, is in consumers with the lowest credit scores.
And not surprisingly, the biggest banks are the ones with the most aggressive fees.
2009-08-10 — blownmortgage.com
” Over 3 million people are 60 days behind in their mortgage payments with little hope of finding a quick solution. This has caused many borrowers look for somewhat imaginative measures to save their home, one of these has been declaring bankruptcy to avoid a mortgage foreclosure. Does this work? Is it legal?”
“Readers may recall that during the heat of bailout battle, the Federal Reserve got into the fancy finance business, relying on the sort of deal structuring sometimes used to try to turn toxic odd pork scraps into barely-digestible sausage, the procedure used for pigs so dead that merely putting lipstick on them just won’t do.
The items in question are Maiden Lane, the vehicle used to backstop JP Morgan’s purchase Bear Stearns, and two sons of Maiden Lane created for dodgy AIG exposures. The bank was permitted to move some particularly fragrant collateral from Bear over to the Fed for a loan of $30 billion. The arrangement got reworked on the fly, and in the end, the Fed loan was reduced to roughly $29 billion as JP Morgan agreed to assume $1.15 billion of risk. The assets were placed in a holding company to be managed by BlackRock.”
It’s about time that people start asking the tough questions.
THIS IS NOT A MISPRINT.
“U.S. taxpayers may be on the hook for as much as $23.7 trillion to bolster the economy and bail out financial companies, said Neil Barofsky, special inspector general for the Treasury’s Troubled Asset Relief Program.
The Treasury’s $700 billion bank-investment program represents a fraction of all federal support to resuscitate the U.S. financial system, including $6.8 trillion in aid offered by the Federal Reserve, Barofsky said in a report released today.
“TARP has evolved into a program of unprecedented scope, scale and complexity,” Barofsky said in testimony prepared for a hearing tomorrow before the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform.
Treasury spokesman Andrew Williams said the U.S. has spent less than $2 trillion so far and that Barofsky’s estimates are flawed because they don’t take into account assets that back those programs or fees charged to recoup some costs shouldered by taxpayers.
“These estimates of potential exposures do not provide a useful framework for evaluating the potential cost of these programs,” Williams said. “This estimate includes programs at their hypothetical maximum size, and it was never likely that the programs would be maxed out at the same time.”
“More than one-third of all Option-ARMs (called Pick-A-Pay loans below) are in default and most of these are likely to make it to the foreclosure stage eventually.”
“After a review of 13 US residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) transactions, Standard and Poor’s lowered its ratings on 120 of the securities’ classes last week. The collateral backing the vintage 2005-2007 securities are primarily Alt-A, first-lien residential mortgages.”
“Often, the troubled home owner assumes the loss will be eaten by the lender. But Bank of America and Chase have quietly added language in their short-sale agreements that require the borrower to sign a promissory note for the shortfall.”
“Congressman Ron Paul has vowed that he will not be stopped in his effort to audit the Federal Reserve, as he slammed Senate authorities for blocking the bill earlier this week.
Appearing on Fox News’ Freedom Watch with Judge Napolitano Paul referred to Senate authorities blocking Jim DeMint’s attempt to attach the legislation, which already has 250 co-sponsors in the House, as a provision to a spending bill as a “facade”.
“Home prices will be lower in two years compared to Q109 for much of the country’s metropolitan statistical areas, (MSAs) according to an economic trends report released by PMI Mortgage Insurance Co.”
“Reporting from Washington — Just as the nation’s housing market has begun showing signs of stabilizing, another wave of foreclosures is poised to strike, possibly as early as this summer, inflicting new punishment on families, communities and the still-troubled national economy.
Amid rising unemployment and falling home prices, mortgage defaults have surged to record levels this year. Until recently, many banks have put off launching foreclosure action on the troubled properties, in part because they had signed up for the Obama administration’s home-stability plan, which required them to consider the alternative of modifying loans to make it easier for borrowers to make payments….”
“Declines of more than 20 percent in regional banks and homebuilders and the failure of transportation companies to erase their annual loss may be signs the rally in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is about to fizzle.”
“Delinquency rates on the least risky mortgages more than doubled in the first quarter from a year earlier as U.S. efforts to help homeowners failed to keep pace with job losses that pushed more borrowers toward foreclosure.”
Wall Street Journal.com’s Bailout Tracker
Where is the $$$ going?
175 California Hotels In Default; Sheraton Keahou Bay Resort in Hawaii Defaults; More Defaults Coming
2009-06-28 Mishs Global Economic Blog
In California, 175 hotels are in default — the first stage in the foreclosure process — according to a report from Atlas Hospitality Group, an Irvine-based brokerage firm. Another 31 have been foreclosed, nearly one third of them in the Inland region.
Of those in default or foreclosure, about 75 percent obtained new loans between 2005 and 2007 for construction financing, re-financing or to buy the hotel, according to the firm. Atlas Hospitality estimates that 2,500 hotels — about 25 percent of the state’s entire hotel population — refinanced or obtained new loans in that time meaning more defaults and foreclosures could be on the horizon.
“Mad props once again to Zerohedge who shone the bright light on Freddie’s latest screed. I’m not going to take from their discussion of The Fed buying up paper at what will (almost certainly) lead to ruinous losses – you can find that there. Rather, I am going to look at some of the internals from the document published that they didn’t focus on.”
China’s central bank renewed its call on Friday for the creation of a super-sovereign reserve currency to reduce the dollar’s global domination, which it said had worsened the financial crisis. In its annual financial stability report, the central bank did not mention the dollar by name but said it was a serious defect that one currency should tower over all others. “An international monetary system dominated by a single sovereign sovereign currency has intensified the concentration of risk and the spread of the crisis,” the People’s Bank of China said.
In this Bloomberg segment Dr. Nouriel Roubini shares his thoughts on why pundits proclaiming the stabilization of the housing market are wrong and why the current policy path is unsustainable and likely to have a messy exit. My favorite part? The idea of our debt ballooning from 40% GDP to 80%. Lovely. Can you say bust?
2009-06-10 Dr Housing Bubble.com
If you want further proof how horrific these products are, take a look at how many of the Alt-A and pay Option ARM products originated with a second lien. That is, low down or nothing down fantasy buyers. In California, there are currently floating around 186,917 Alt-A mortgages with a second lien on them. You can rest assured that 90 to 99 percent of these loans will implode in the upcoming months. This is where your piggy back loans and 80-10-10 crap came about. I remember when zero down was a crazy way to suck in unknowing investors to thousand dollar seminars but it actually became a mainstream way to buy a home.
Before you even wonder how safe these loans are 41.6 percent of California Alt-A mortgage holders already have one late in the last 12 months! Keep in mind that most of this junk hasn’t even hit recast points and nearly half are already late with one payment:
May 6, 2009
Presented by Mike “Mish” Shedlock.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock is author of one of the most read economics blogs on the Internet: Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com.
Mish gave an @Google talk, sharing his perspective on the state of the global economy (housing, the stock market, commodities, etc.) He also provides his interesting story about how he started blogging, and the impact that it has had on his life personally and professionally.
In January, Time.com ranked his site the #1 based on a rounded set of criteria http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1873144-3,00.html. From the article:
“Although Mish is not an economist by training, he adroitly gets into the thick of economic data. Mish uses observations made by those in major media, so-called experts and government officials and serves up analysis based on his impression of their relevance and validity. The author is not afraid to attack conventional wisdom.”
2009-06-07 Mish’s Global Economic Blog
Please consider unemployment forecasts. The Fed forecast unemployment at 8.4% in 2009 and the “adverse forecast” was at 10.3% in 2010.
Hello Ben, in case you did not notice, Jobs Contract 17th Straight Month; Unemployment Rate Soars to 9.4% and Bankruptcy Filings Reach 6,000 A Day.
A 27-year bull market in bonds is over and a brutal bear market is under way, says Tom Atteberry, co-manager of FPA New Income. That’s bad news for bond investors, particularly those holding Treasurys and municipal IOUs.
Atteberry, who spoke with us at the annual Morningstar Investment Conference in Chicago, says there is good reason to believe that the run-up in Treasury yields that began late last year will continue. Atteberry says he’s seeing anecdotal evidence that Chinese investors, huge holders of Treasurys, are beginning to sell their government-bond stakes. “They are very, very nervous” about the Federal Reserve purchasing Treasury debt because of the move’s potential for stoking inflation, one of the prime enemies of bond holders.