Pickle Real Estate

Reading Between the Head-Lines

Commercial Real Estate….. it’s not a matter of if, but when?

2010-04-19 - Calculated Risk Blog

” Moody’s reported this morning that the Moody’s/REAL All Property Type Aggregate Index declined 2.6% in February. This is a repeat sales measure of commercial real estate prices.

Moody’s noted that the share of distressed sales has increased sharply. In 2008 distressed sales were only 4% of all sales, in 2009 nearly 20% of all the repeat sales transaction were classified as distressed. In February 2010, the percent of distressed sales jumped to a record 32%.

Below is a comparison of the Moodys/REAL Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI) and the Case-Shiller composite 20 index.

Notes: Beware of the “Real” in the title – this index is not inflation adjusted. Moody’s CRE price index is a repeat sales index like Case-Shiller – but there are far fewer commercial sales – and that can impact prices.

CRE and Residential Price indexes

CRE prices only go back to December 2000.

The Case-Shiller Composite 20 residential index is in blue (with Dec 2000 set to 1.0 to line up the indexes).

Commercial real estate values are now down 25.8% over the last year, and down 41.8% from the peak in August 2007.

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April 20, 2010 - Posted by | Foreclosure, Real Estate

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